The task I face every week as I begin this column is to interpret the tea leaves so we can get some glimpse into the future of the economy, and thereby get an idea of how to invest our hard-earned money. In theory, the direction of the economy (both local and global) will have a direct influence on stocks, bonds and other investments.
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Last week we looked at the continuing evidence of deflation, which is my primary concern when I analyze the future direction of the markets.
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Last week's 2002 Forecast laid out the clear cut case that deflation would be the dominant economic force in the first part of 2002. I took pains not to use any recent data, trying to make the case on long-term economic patterns. I have always felt it is dangerous to use weekly data to make long-term forecasts.
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My annual predictions letters for the last two years have been easy to write, and with one glaring exception, have been generally on target. I start with a basic premise - one key economic factor -- and work out from there. I look for the one thing I believe is going to affect the economy more than anything else in the coming year. If I am wrong on my basic premise, then everything else is likely to be wrong.
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