• June 28, 2002

As the Walrus Said

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "to talk of many things." This week we talk about whether we are in a housing bubble, look at stock and bond market directions, the problems with the dollar and much more. It is that semi-annual time when I make predictions (which is the term for educated guess), and then watch to see what actually occurs.

This week I begin with a look at the housing market. I probably get more questions on housing and real estate than on any topic, other than stocks....

• June 21, 2002

Blind Dogs and Janus Managers

In the 17 years from the end of 1964 to the end of 1981, the Dow gained exactly one-tenth of one percent. In the bull market which followed from 1982 to the peak in March of 2000, the Dow rose from 875 to 11,723, a spectacular rise of 1,239% or over 13 times from the starting point.

We all remember what a difficult time that first period was. You had three recessions, oil shocks, Viet Nam, stagflation, the collapse of the Nifty Fifty, Watergate, short term interest rates rising to 18%, gold...

• June 14, 2002

Re-Setting the Investment Scales

The news all seems so bleak sometimes. But is it? If my view that we are in a Muddle Through Economy is to prevail, then we surely must be seeing some good news somewhere. In this issue, I find some good news, some bad news and highlight a recent study which shows that the run in small cap stocks may be coming to an end. And much more, of course. Let's jump right in.

• June 7, 2002

The Dollar Teddy Bear Market

Every week, as I sit down to write, I think about the scores of research reports and articles I have read in the past few weeks. Is there a new theme? What trend is developing? What is the picture coming into view from the pieces of the puzzle at which I get to look? What have I seen that I should bring to your attention?

Usually one or two things jump out, and this week is no exception. A number of articles, all about the dollar, and when taken in concert, are beginning to concern me. The...