Thoughts from the Frontline Archive, February 2007

The 51.9% Recession
  • February 23, 2007

The 51.9% Recession

What are the odds of a recession? According to a recent Fed study, they may be 51.9%. Close enough to 50-50 for government work. We analyze this study, look at a few graphs which show a major disconnect between the housing market and the US manufacturing and services sectors, and then close with some comments on yet another proposed rule change. But let's start with a few housekeeping items.

The latter half of this letter will be written primarily to my colleagues in the financial...

Read more
Gold, Housing and the Yield Curve
  • February 16, 2007

Gold, Housing and the Yield Curve

I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions. I am often asked whether a yield curve causes a recession. The (very) short answer is no. But then what is the mechanism that makes it so reliable? Is it different this time? How can we believe that the economy has a few bumps in its...

Read more
Out of Africa
  • February 9, 2007

Out of Africa

I start this week's letter somewhere over the Atlantic, halfway through an 11-hour flight from Frankfurt to Dallas. It has been an altogether marvelous 11 days in South Africa, speaking to over 1,000 people at 12 venues, giving a half dozen media interviews, and meeting with many individuals.

It had been 12 or more years since I was last in South Africa. The difference cannot be more palpable. The last time I was there, talking with friends and acquaintances about the future of South...

Read more
A Raging Bull
  • February 2, 2007

A Raging Bull

This week I am in South Africa. At the moment I am literally flying from Johannesburg to Durban in a single-engine Pilates PC 12, a very upscale Swiss-manufactured plane. I am told pilots will know and appreciate the plane. It is supposedly the safest plane in the world, which is somewhat comforting as we bounce through a few storm clouds (and thunderstorms later tonight of the way to Cape Town!). My business partners and hosts, Dr. Prieur du Plessis and Paul Stewart of Plexus Asset...

Read more
Thoughts from the Frontline

Archive


Interviews with leading experts digging deep on the most urgent stories you need to know about. Interviews with leading experts digging deep on the most urgent stories you need to know about.
×
Thoughts from the Frontline

Wait! Don't leave without...

John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline

Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. Get this free newsletter in your inbox every Saturday!

By opting in you are also consenting to receive Mauldin Economics' marketing emails. You can opt-out from these at any time. Privacy Policy